PROJECT OVERVIEW

PROJECT BACKGROUND

In the south central part of coastal California, the northern Channel Islands, Santa Barbara Channel, coastal watersheds, foothills and Santa Ynez Mountain Range are essential components of a healthy region. The coastal and marine ecosystems of the region are intimately linked to climate. In the past, species have adapted to dramatic change in the climate. Today, however, the unique native species of the region face significant barriers and pressures associated with abrupt change in the climate of the south-central coast. Climate induced environmental changes on coastal and marine ecosystems include:

• Temperature changes that alter ecological processes and species interactions;
• Increase in frequency of extreme ocean warming events, with implications for marine habitats;
• Changes in precipitation that alter freshwater run-off of nutrients, sediment, and contaminants into coastal wetlands and nearshore marine areas;
• Accelerated rates of sea level rise;
• Alteration of oceanic wind and water circulation patterns;
• Continued losses of sea ice over large areas of the Arctic basin;
• Ocean acidification caused by reaction of increasing CO2 with seawater.

Failure to proactively plan for and respond to climate change impacts will have ecological as well as economic implications. While California is encouraging local governments to develop plans that support the reduction of greenhouse gases into their general plans, there has been little if any policy development at the county level in the State to address the major threats to coastal marine biodiversity posed by climate disturbance. California policy requires that the public and private sectors participate in reducing California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In addition, the existing California policy framework includes Assembly Bill (AB) 32, Senate Bill (SB) 375, SB 97, as well as a host of additional topic-specific bills. The California policy framework presents various obligations and opportunities for each county and city to participate in this emerging State directive. The City of Santa Barbara voluntarily opted to initiate a climate action plan, which set benchmarks and outline strategies for the reduction of GHG emissions. Santa Barbara County has initiated several climate-related programs in the areas of air, green building, water, waste, land use and transportation. The City’s strategy does not include programs or policies that emphasize the protection of coastal areas, including the harbor, in light of expected impacts from climate change.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is more than a problem of reducing energy consumption or developing new methods of energy production. Scientists indicate that even if greenhouse gas emissions are dramatically cut, we can expect impacts to coastal marine ecosystems from climate change.

The County Board of Supervisors is considering the establishment of a planning process to develop a Gaviota Local Coastal Plan (LCP), which may begin in a 2009-2010. This project represents an important contribution to needed planning efforts insofar as it includes a review of the types of policies that are needed to protect coastal marine biodiversity in the County. The anticipated outcome of this project is to provide preliminary policy guidance that can support a future update of Santa Barbara County’s General Plan (GP) and Local Coastal Ordinance (i.e., Article Two of the GP) Plan, with a particular emphasis on policies that can protect coastal marine biodiversity.

This project produced by UC Santa Barbara’s Ocean and Coastal Policy Center and funded by the UCSB Associated Students Coastal Fund will lead to the production of a report on the expected pressures on coastal marine ecosystems from climate change, and the policy responses that are needed to protect coastal marine biodiversity in the south-central part of coastal California. The report will focus on Santa Barbara County’s coastal environment to the marine area, including the northern Channel Islands and the Santa Barbara Channel.

The particular emphasis is on the coastal area of the Gaviota coast, including the coastal wetlands and nearshore marine environment of the County. This boundary is not fixed: in some cases, inland areas that influence the coast or are influenced by coastal processes (e.g., sediment sources from coastal watersheds) are included in the scope.

The project will include the production of a report that includes an analysis of existing coastal and marine policies that are developing at the federal, state, county and city levels, and an evaluation of these policies to determine the likelihood that they will meet local needs. This report should be viewed as a preliminary assessment, and will not include much needed regional assessments that should include a vulnerability analysis and economic analysis of coastal areas and development that may be threatened by climate change.

One important part of this project is the integration of information from participants who attend public workshops sponsored by UC Santa Barbara’s Ocean and Coastal Policy Center during the spring of 2009. Participants in the first public workshop to be held in April 2009 include invited members from the public, policymakers, elected officials, members of conservation organizations, and scientists.

A second workshop will also include interested students and faculty at UCSB in a dialogue on climate change on the expected impacts on the coastal marine areas of the region. The goal of the workshops are to foster a shared understanding of the impacts from climate change on the region’s coastal and marine environment, and to receive community input and feedback on policy tools and recommendations that are needed to respond to these pressures and impacts from climate disturbance. The proceedings of these two workshops will be attached as appendices to the final report, which will be completed and distributed in late June 2009.

The report will include three major parts. Part One of the report describes the climate-related pressures to the region’s coastal and marine ecosystems. To characterize the threats and expected impacts from climate disturbance the project includes the use the “pressure-state-response” (PSR) model. The PSR model emphasizes an assessment and analysis of present and future “pressures” posed by climate change on coastal and marine biodiversity. The identification of “pressures” was based on the gathering and synthesizing of existing scientific and technical information, data and material on the impacts and threats posed by climate change. Data and information from government and non-government sources, including scientific reports on the region, federal and state government reports, and regional conservation plans was used to produce this report.

An analysis of pressures included a characterization of the general “state” of the coastal marine environment in light of expected climate change and human use of coastal marine resources. The “state” refers to the condition of the coastal marine ecosystems that result from pressures, e.g. trends in sea surface temperature and acidification, sea level rise, expected impacts on coastal and marine biodiversity, among others. This part of the report offers a number of case studies that provide a characterization of the particular pressures on specific species or habitats of the region, including the northern Channel Islands and the Gaviota coast.

Part Two of the report describes a range of alternative “responses”. The “response” component of the PSR model relates to the actions taken by governments and non-government organizations that are designed to ease or prevent negative coastal marine impacts, to correct existing damage, or to conserve or enhance coastal marine ecosystem integrity. These responses may include regulatory and non-regulatory policy, management actions, planning elements, changes in coastal marine resource management and coastal land use, and the provision of environmental information. This section provides a general overview of existing local coastal policies that have been adopted by the City of Santa Barbara and County of Santa Barbara with respect to the expected pressures from climate change on coastal marine ecosystems.

Part Three of the report includes an overview of general policy goals and recommendations to improve the role of county and city governance in an era of climate change. A number of general policy goals and management actions are proposed to guide future planning with respect to climate change at the county and city level.

Pressures on Coastal Marine Ecosystems

The cumulative impacts of the multiple-use of coastal marine resources can exacerbate a system’s ability to adapt to ecological disturbance. Significant emissions cut of greenhouse gases will not bring quick relief to the myriad pressures on coastal marine biodiversity. Some dangerous consequences for biodiversity and human beings may likely be triggered, and will persist for long periods of time, even if emissions were cut radically. Climate change will interact with and accelerate the existing pressures to biodiversity, such as natural ocean-climate variability (i.e., long and short term change in oceanographic regimes), habitat degradation, overexploitation of resources, such as fisheries, and the significant impacts of the introduction of non-native invasive species on coastal marine species. Indeed, scientists show that there are synergies among extinction drivers under global climate change that reflect the cumulative impacts of the multiple-use of coastal marine resources and anthropogenic climate disturbance.

CLIMATE DISTURBANCE AND COASTAL MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

While institutional focus and public attention has been on the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) note that large-scale change in the world’s coastal and marine ecosystems is expected even if greenhouse gas emissions were significantly reduced. The IPCC (2007) reports the following:

• Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values... The atmospheric concentrations of CO2... in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution;
• It is likely that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many natural systems;
• Greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades; and
• The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations lead to further acidification. The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century.

Hansen et al. (2005) conclude their analysis of global warming by noting that a warming of more than 1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute dangerous climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. The sixth mass extinction of plants and animals is likely underway -- nearly 50 percent of all species could disappear within the lifetimes of people now living on Earth (Cadotte et al. 2008). The last mass extinction took place 65 million years ago during the Cretaceous Tertiary extinction event. The most comprehensive assessment of the world’s mammals confirms an extinction crisis, with almost one in four at risk of disappearing, according to The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, revealed at the IUCN World Conservation Congress in October 2008. The study to assess the world’s mammals shows at least 1,141 of the 5,487 mammals on Earth are known to be threatened with extinction. One in four marine mammals may go extinct.

A comprehensive review of the expected impacts from climate change on coastal marine ecosystems is found in Schubert et al. (2006). One primary pressure of growing concern is oceanic acidification, which is caused change in the pH of seawater and rising CO2 levels in atmospheric and oceanographic processes. Oceanic acidification will likely have significant adverse impacts on the reproduction, metabolism and growth of several species of invertebrates and coastal marine ecosystems of California, including some of the top commercial fisheries in the state (Orr et al. 2005; Royal Society 2005; Kleypas et al. 2006; Fabry et al. 2008; Feely et al. 2008). A second issue of concern is sea level rise, which threats coastal ecosystems (e.g., wetlands), watersheds, and the urban infrastructure along the shoreline (IPCC 2007). A characterization of the impacts of sea level rise of coastal processes, beach ecology, and the social infrastructure of coastal California is found in Revell et al. (2008).

Coastal Marine Ecosystem Disturbance

California’s coastal marine ecosystems have been significant degraded by human activities. Wetlands and watersheds have been dramatically altered or destroyed by human activities during the past 60 years. Most of the riparian areas of the coastal rivers and streams of the region have been lost. Rivers have been rerouted and dammed. Creeks have been paved and channelized. Wetlands have been filled. Important fresh-water and salt water inputs to coastal wetlands have been altered. Few estuaries are open to the necessary tidal influence. Along coastal southern California entire ecological communities are considered threatened or endangered. Coastal sage scrub communities in southern California are reported by the US Department of the Interior as “endangered ecosystems” (Noss et al. 1995).

The California’s MTE has lost many important coastal habitats and associated biodiversity: 55% of the State listed animals and 25% of the threatened plants depend on wetlands; 43% of the Federally listed species rely directly on wetlands for survival; estuarine wetlands have decline by 75-90%; riparian communities have declined by 90-95%; and vernal pools have declined by 90% (McGinnis 2000, 2006). The native plants unique to California are very vulnerable to global climate change such that two-thirds of these "endemics" could suffer more than an 80 percent reduction in geographic range by the end of the century, according to a recent University of California, Berkeley, study (Loarie et al. 2008). Marine scientists document large-scale disturbance in the coastal marine ecosystems of California (NOAA 2008; CDFG 2002). McGowan et al. (1998) indicate that there has been a decline in primary and secondary level of marine ecological productivity since 1958.

There are a number of existing pressures on coastal marine ecosystems likely to be exacerbated by climate change, including:

• Growth and development

o Energy development
o Conflicts over land protection and land use planning
o Habitat Fragmentation
o Agriculture and range expansion

• Water and hydrology

o Availability/quality
o Diversions
o Management conflicts
o Temperature changes
o Sea level rise
o Pollution and sediments
o Fish populations passage issues

• Ecosystem change

o Vegetation structure
o Community changes

• Invasive species, pests, and disease
• Fire regime changes
• Disturbance regime changes
• Sport and Commercially harvested species

Climate change will have direct impacts on existing coastal protected areas such as ecological reserves, wildlife areas, undesignated lands, mitigations sites, and easements. Sea level rise and changes in the intensity of storm events could impact low lying coastal areas and result in the loss or inundation of coastal wetlands and dune habitat resulting in salt water intrusion and loss of fresh water resources for fish and wildlife. Changes to the timing and intensity of freshwater input may impact marine and nearshore populations through increased runoff resulting in pollution and sedimentation contamination and shifts in urban growth and development will place new or increased pressure on existing coastal resources and available habitat. Inundation of coastal infrastructure will cause widespread pollution and contamination further jeopardizing marine and near-marine environments.

Changes in the atmosphere, oceanographic processes, and biology are linked to changes in the basic life-support and life-giving mechanisms of the earth. This section briefly describes the expected pressures and associated impacts from climate disturbance on coastal marine ecosystems of the region. The major pressures associated with climate change should be understood a cumulative in nature; there will likely be synergistic impacts associated with the multiple-use of coastal marine resources and climate change.

Pressures

Sea Level Rise, Inundation, and Coastal Storms
Sea level rise and erosion risks
Coastal storms and extreme weather events
Changing Ocean and Coastal Conditions
Salinity changes (especially in estuaries)
Temperature changes (air and sea)
Changes to ocean currents, upwelling, and stratification
Ocean acidification

Impacts

Effects of Sea Level Rise, Inundation, and Coastal Storms - Impacts to the Built Environment
Infrastructure at risk
Impacts to coastal populations
Economic impacts
Effects of Changing Ocean and Coastal Conditions – Impacts to the Natural Environment

Impacts to coastal ecosystems – beaches, wetlands, intertidal and subtidal habitats
Changes in protected species populations (endangered species, marine mammals, etc.) commercially significant species (fisheries), marine ecosystems and food webs, and introduction of new invasive species, and economic impacts

The effects of climate changes can be generally described, even though their magnitude, timing, and location cannot be known for certain. Anticipating both gradual change and episodic events is essential to enable communities to become resilient to effects from climate change. The potential impacts on our coastal community include:

Community Infrastructure

Climate conditions are generally factored into the design of community
infrastructure. As climate conditions change, some infrastructure systems may be less effective or may fail altogether, which could alter the function, value, or viability of improvements these systems protect or serve.

- Coastal roads, highways, and rail lines are at risk from the effects of increased winter precipitation, increased coastal erosion, and flooding. Over the long term, roads, highways, and railroads will be affected by sea level rise and increased tidal elevations along the ocean shore, estuaries, and coastal creeks and river.

- Santa Barbara Airport runway is located on filled estuarine wetlands and may be at risk of inundation from storm surge and high tides and, over time by sea level and increased tidal heights.

- Port facilities, jetties and groins will be subject to damage from larger storm waves. Watershed flooding may increase sediment loads into estuaries and thus increase the need for dredging of navigational channels. Increased tidal height will affect docks and bulkheads.

- Dikes and levees: Rising sea level and the increased likelihood of inundation from higher storm surge and tidal heights, especially in times of river flooding, may threaten the integrity of dikes and levees. Infrastructure and development on lands protected by dikes are at risk of damage and inundation as dikes fail.

- Shore protection improvements: Some portions of the County’s ocean shorelines have been armored against erosion from ocean waves. As shorelines erode landward in response to higher sea level and storms, armored properties are at risk of becoming peninsulas, then islands, and then overtopped. An increase in significant wave heights is likely to damage or cause failure of some hardened shorelines, potentially resulting in damage to nearby unprotected property and infrastructure.

- Municipal Services/Stormwater systems: The capacity of local stormwater management systems may be exceeded as the magnitude or frequency of rainfall events increases, especially as tidal elevations rise leading to localized flooding, accelerated deterioration, and possible system failure. Systems at or near capacity today may be unable to handle future storm loads, which could have a significant effect on location of future development.

- Water supply and wastewater treatment: Rainfall in winter is projected to increase. However, storing water across longer, drier summers may be a problem for some coastal communities where storage systems are already at or over capacity during summer. Reduced precipitation in summer months, especially in conjunction with warmer winter temperatures, may reduce the water available for municipal supply systems. In addition, wastewater treatment facilities are usually located at the lowest elevation in a watershed, which places those facilities at risk from rising sea level and tidal elevation.

- Recreational facilities: Increased erosion along ocean shore from rising sea levels and coastal storms may seriously alter beaches, and in some cases, the infrastructure necessary for safe access to and from beaches and coastal parks. Coastal trails and campgrounds may experience frequent damage from high winds and flooding.

Coastal Natural Systems

Many familiar coastal habitats, ecosystems, and natural resources will be affected by climate change. Low-lying habitats and ecosystems are especially vulnerable to floods, tides and ocean waves. Temperature and precipitation changes will affect the distribution and composition of forests, riparian areas, and other terrestrial habitats. Even rocky intertidal habitats are vulnerable to increased atmospheric and ocean temperatures.

- Coastal creeks and rivers: Streams that drain into the Santa Barbara Channel will carry increased runoff from greater winter rainfall but will become drier in summer due to decreased rainfall. More severe rainfall events in these streams may increase the frequency and severity of flooding episodes.

Warmer summer temperatures and lower summer stream flows may raise water temperatures to the detriment of aquatic species, such as southern steelhead salmon and other coldwater

- Estuarine wetlands are vulnerable to rising sea level and tidal elevations, depending on rate of sediment deposition, the nature of the shoreline, and pace of sea level rise. Freshwater tidal wetlands may be inundated more frequently by saline waters, triggering changes in wetland communities.

An adequate supply of sediments to the estuary could enable tidal wetland elevations to keep pace with rising tidal elevation.

- Estuarine benthic ecosystems: Higher air temperatures can heat mudflats and raise estuarine water temperatures, especially upstream of ocean influence, thus affecting benthic communities and productivity. The loss of benthic habitat will directly affect the composition and productivity of estuarine ecosystems.- Invasive species: Such invasions may be related to climate factors.

- Acidification:. As ocean waters become more acidic, estuaries will be subjected to these same acidic conditions. The effects of increased acidity on estuarine ecosystems are not yet known, but scientists are concerned about the potential effects on clams, crabs, oysters and other shellfish.

The Pacific Ocean

- Ecosystem shifts: Summer winds are critical to upwelling that drives productivity of marine ecosystems. Recent El Niño events demonstrated that warmer ocean temperatures and shifting wind patterns can, from just one season to the next, affect upwelling and the production of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and forage fish. Seabirds, marine mammals, salmon and other species were adversely affected by El Niño conditions and are expected to be affected by long term shifts in climate conditions.

- Distribution of species: Long-term changes in ocean conditions are likely to result in a northward shift in the distribution of marine species, including sea birds and marine mammals. El Niño conditions have been cited as a factor in marine mammal mortality, and lack of seabird reproductive success.

- Changes in upwelling: Timing of the seasonal upwelling in the Pacific off Oregon, which provides the nutritional foundation for the marine food web, is changing. A long-term shift in the timing of up-welling would have long-lasting effects on commercial and recreational fisheries.

- Hypoxia: While it is not clear that climate change is causing the hypoxic ‘dead zones’ in ocean waters off California, the forces causing the hypoxia are all linked to, and affected by, climate change.

- Ocean acidification: Increasing ocean acidification due to its absorption of CO2 has the potential to reduce the ability of marine species to form shells, which in turn would have a dramatic effect on the entire marine food web. Shellfish such as clams, oysters, and crabs will be particularly sensitive to an increasingly acid environment.

- Ocean shore: The ocean shore will certainly be altered in many places due to higher sea level, higher waves, more frequent and stronger storms, and possible shifts in predominant wind directions. Beach and bluff erosion will result in shoreline retreat. Ocean shores armored with rip-rap and seawalls will be increasingly at risk over time.

- Estuarine shores: The shorelines of estuaries will change over time as increasing tidal elevations push the “normal” shoreline farther inland. Habitats and human uses in low-lying areas adjacent to estuaries are at risk over time even if protected by bulkheads, dikes, or levees. Habitat restoration projects in coastal shorelands should consider effects of future climate change.

- Non-native species: Habitat changes in response to shifts in temperature, salinity, and precipitation will provide opportunities for invasion by non-native species that are adapted to the new habitat conditions or that out-compete native species weakened by habitat change.

Coastal Economic Sectors

- Harvest effects: Some commercial ocean fish stock, already at low levels from overharvest, may be at risk over the long term as ocean conditions change. Changes in ocean ecosystem conditions are likely to fundamentally alter the historic fisheries of the south coast.

- Ocean acidification: Calcium-based plankton, which support the marine food web, are at risk from even minute changes in ocean acidity. Changes in plankton production will affect fisheries in ways that cannot now be predicted. It is not known how larger shellfish, such as clams, oysters, and crabs will fare in an increasingly acid environment.

List of Useful References:

Barbour, E. and L. Kueppers. 2008. Conservation and Management of Ecological Systems in a Changing California. Public Policy Institute of California. November. http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_1108EBR.pdf

Brook, B.W., N.S. Sodhi, and C.J.A. Bradshaw. 2008. Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23, 8: 453-460.

California Oceans and Coastal Resources Working Group. 2008. Draft Outline. The draft and final report by this working group will assess climate change and sea level rise impacts. The report will include adaptation strategies for coastal habitats and infrastructure along the 1,100 miles of California's coastline. This group has recently submitted their cross-sector analysis, which will undergo review through stakeholder meetings, workshops, and final review/approval by the California Ocean Protection Council. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/oceans/index.html

Fabry, V. J., B.A. Seibel, R.A. Feely, and J.C. Orr. 2008. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes. ICES Journal of Marine Science 65: 414–432.

Feely, R., C. L. Sabine, J. M. Hernandez-Ayon, D. Ianson, B. Hales. 2008. Evidence for Upwelling of Corrosive ‘Acidified’ Seawater onto the Continental Shelf. Science 10.1126/science.1155676.

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Revell, D., M. Heberger, P. Gleick, B. Battalio, H. Cooley, and J. Vandever. 2008 In Press. An Initial Assessment of the Impacts of Sea Level Rise to the California Coast. Project Funded by the California Energy Commission’s Energy Research Program, CalTrans, and the California Ocean Protection Council. www.pacinst.org

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